Article – The Imminent Threat to Israel

Posted: May 14, 2012 in Uncategorized

By Roger O’Daniel October 24, 2011

Prolog

Palestine never was a Nation State recognized by the United Nations or any Western Power. At best, it was a protectorate of some other nation. Ancient Rome, Turkey, Syria and Great Britain come to mind. Palestine is not now recognized as a sovereign nation. The “promised land” of the Israelites started west of the Jordan River and extended west to the Mediterranean Sea.

This issue began as a proposal to the UN by Hamas, the de-facto government of Palestine and the Gaza strip. This is part of a formal resolution brought forth by USA, Russia and others to form a separate Palestinian State. The resolution, as it now stands amended by Hamas, incorporates a provision to seize from Israel East Jerusalem in its entirety to become the capitol city of the new Palestinian State. Why would Hamas want to do that?

Hamas claims that the UN “seized” the land of Palestine to create the nation of Israel in the first place. Hamas never recognized Israel’s right to exist. If Hamas can partition Jerusalem into two parts, Hamas believes Israel could be goaded into another fight.

From my perspective, Palestine wants to pick a fight that the Israelis cannot refuse. Next, the Palestinians (with help from their “Arab Spring” allies) could drive Israel into the sea, reclaim the entire nation of Israel as their own by right of conquest, and claim that the Israelis started it.

Demographic Insights

Israel, as it exists today, includes the conquered territories of the Golan Heights to the north, the Palestine territory to the east, the Gaza strip on the southern sea border, and the Negev desert/wilderness that ends with the northern tip of the Gulf of Aqaba. Lake Tiberius and the Jordan River is the largest source of surface fresh water, flowing into the Dead Sea, one of the saltiest inland seas of the world and incapable of supporting life. Note the location of Bethlehem, Jericho and Hebron. These cities are of great historical interest to Christians and Jews. Also note the number and location of Jewish settlements. All of these places lie within the proposed boundaries of a separate Palestinian State.

 

Israel’s original UN boundaries show the relationship of Israel with its neighbors and the borders of its alleged occupied territories. Notice the reduced access to the Jordan River and the width of Israel from Hadera to Tel Aviv-Yafo. It is less than 20 miles. The longest distance between its potential neighbors and the Mediterranean Sea is about 35 miles.

Surface transportation routes are not shown due to file size limits. Roadways extend from the most northern city of Nahariyya to as far south as Dimona. East-west routes are concentrated around Tel Aviv. These roads could be used for an invading ground force or evacuation route. Others parallel International boundaries in the north with Syria
and Jordan. If Syria regains the Golan Heights, there are direct routes into Israel.. The comment below the legend in the transportation map reads, “The 1950 Israel proclamation that Jerusalem be the national capitol is not recognized by the United States Government.” Interesting!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This map shows the Golan Heights with the surrounding area. Note the number and dispersion of cities and fresh water locations in the Golan Heights. Also note the border with Jordan to the south and the two demilitarized zones leading to En Gev, the Israeli city on the east side of Lake Tiberius. Notice the Lebanon border with Israel, the Golan Heights, and Syria. This map illustrates the strategic importance of the Golan Heights to Israel.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The map above shows the extent of Israeli settlements within the Golan Heights from an economic perspective. Note the location of food processing centers, farm land and light industry. Also note the location of grazing land and lack of population density along the border of Jordan. That could provide a supply route for military assets from Iran through Syria and into the Palestine territory.

This map shows the vulnerability of the Israeli population to foreign attack and/or siege if Israel’s borders revert back to the original UN prescribed boundaries. Notice that the south is the Negev desert of interest only to the hardiest of nomadic people. The population density is huge and concentrated in the northern half of the nation. The circles show the highest density, located in and around Tel Aviv-Yafo.

Historical Summary

The history of this dispute goes all the way back to the Book of Exodus found in the Jewish Torah and Christian Bible. Several events marked peaks of disruptive activity that affected sovereignty, territorial disputes and bloodshed that ensued. This Palestinian State UN resolution is just a footnote of generations of hatred between Arabs and Jews.

Israel ceased to be a nation when the Romans attacked Israel in about 57 AD, destroyed the Jerusalem temple (except for part of the west wall) and sacked Israel. The Romans also killed without mercy the occupants dumb enough to remain in the pathway of the Roman army. According to the Torah’s and biblical history books, only the tribes of Levi and Judah kept the Covenant between God and the 12 tribes. The early Christians and many of the tribe of Judah (that assimilated the remnants of the tribe of Levi) headed south and into Egypt and beyond. The other tribes were assimilated into other nations, losing their tribal identity. The Christians formed what is now the Coptic rite of the Catholic Church that is now threatened with annihilation by the Islamic militants in Egypt.

The second major conglomeration of events was:

  1. The birth of Islam,
  2. The murder by poison of its founder, Muhammad,
  3. The schism of the Sunni and Shiite sects,
  4. Followed by the Wahhabist sect,
  5. With other variations of the three, and
  6. The first Great Jihad (which means great effort, not holy war).

The first great jihad gave control of the Promised Land to the Arabs and Islamic converts that chose to live rather than die by the sword as infidels. As time progressed, Constantinople became Istanbul. The Muslims also built a mosque on the very spot where the Arabs thought Solomon’s temple once stood.

The Second Great Jihad spread Islam all the way into the Iberian Peninsula, assisted by the Moors. The father of Charlemagne drove the Islamists out of Europe. The Islamic theocracies degenerated into tribal factions of various sorts, similar to the Protestant Reformation. The Alhambra remains witness to the short-time conquest of Spain by the Moors. Sicilian ancestry includes about 10% Moorish ancestry within its gene pool, not by choice.

The third major conglomeration of events involves World War II and Germany’s “final solution to the Jewish problem.” At that time, the British controlled parts of the Middle East, including the “Holy Land” portion. The Arabs granted sanctuary to the German and “Third Reich” Jews over the objection of the British who wanted to send them back to Germany. The Jews invoked the sacred law of hospitality. According to Islamic law, the Arabs could not refuse.

After the war, the Jews remained. The merchants appreciated the innovative and hard working Jews that turned a near desert area the Arabs thought worthless into an agricultural miracle. They actually got along with each other, or at least tolerated each other, giving the British no legitimate reason to remain the local police. One British contribution resolved the religious conflict over the area that included the Church of the Holy Sepulcher and a another church above it, all on Arab land. The British brokered a formal treaty-like agreement between the religious groups, made a Muslim the gatekeeper and holder of the door keys, and called the treaty “The Status Quo.” Like most lasting legal agreements, it was something nobody wanted that was equally unfair to all.

The next event was the creation of Israel by UN resolution. That started the genocidal warfare that persists today. The Arabs claim the UN had no right to “seize our land” and the Jews violated the sacred law of hospitality by accepting it. The Israelites soundly defeated the Arabs in the Yom Kipper war, which gave Israel occupancy of the land that threatened their security. This land included the Golan Heights and the land west of the Jordan River. One of the consequences was the no-man’s land refugee camp known as the Gaza Strip. Israel moved Arab refugees and insurgents that formerly lived in Israel to Gaza. Its inhabitants were effectively “ghettoed” there because Egypt refused to assimilate it (until now).

Now the Arabs want their land back in two steps.

  1. They will use the UN resolution. This event returns Israel to a territory it cannot secure from attack. If the UN grants the amendment, it ignites Israeli fury by seizing control of a major part of their holy city, East Jerusalem. Christians will also lose their holy shrine, the Holy Sepulcher, and access to Bethlehem.
  2. The Palestinians could conquer territory that the Israelis cannot defend and claim that the Israelis started it. This includes the Arab “final solution to the Jewish problem.”

The Israelis, armed with US weaponry, teenage fighter pilots with awesome reaction speeds, “bunker buster” bombs,and an arsenal of nuclear weapons, are not about to be annihilated. Tactical retreat is not an option for Israelis given the fact that the original UN specified boundary is only about 35 miles wide (or less) in its most heavily-populated area.

Here is what the Israelis are up against:

From the South . . .

Their only ally in the neighborhood, Egypt, is now aiding and abetting Israel’s enemies, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. The Arab Spring may have exchanged one dictator for another, the supreme commander of the Egyptian Army, Mohaqmed Hussein Tantawi. Israel gets 45 percent of its petroleum energy and electrical power from or through territory controlled by Egypt. Egypt opened its borders in both directions with Gaza. Scud type missiles are flowing into Gaza without interference through Egypt. Russian-made Libyan missiles are showing up in Gaza. Anti-ship missiles from China may be on their way. Egypt controls the Suez Canal. Iran’s 2nd Fleet is south of the Suez Canal allegedly keeping the Somali pirates at bay. Israel purchased three German “boomer-class” submarines to protect against naval attack from the Mediterranian Sea. Their torpedos are ready.

From the North . . .

The Iranian medium-range missile can throw a 2-ton warhead payload with precision anywhere in the highly populated part of Israel that lies north of the Negev desert. Once the Golan Heights is returned to Syria, that becomes an ideal launching point for artillery, Scuds, and Iranian missiles. Lebanon’s Hezbollah could launch scuds into northern Israel, as they now do, but with greater penetration . Palestine could cut off the fresh water source Israel needs for its population and agriculture. According to eye witnesses, Russia hauled Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) out of Iraq when the Allies started kicking the Iraq army out of Kuwait. The material moved North into Syria, and then West into Lebanon where it was burried. This was chemical and biological toxins, Russian equipmentused to make them, shell casings to deliver them, and the evidence that identified Russia’s involvement. Some of this stuff could still have killing power in the hands of Hezbollah.

A resolution was brought to the UN Security Council to ask NATO to interene in the Syrian uprising. Syrian President Assad had an interview with the Turkey Foreign Minister. ”Syrian President Bashar Assad on the following Tuesday threatened to set fir to the Middle East, and especially to Israel, if NATO attacks Syria”, the Iranian Fars news agency reported. Assad threatened to rain hundreds of rockets upon Tel-Aviv within three to six hours of a NATO attack on Syria. He also said that Iran would attack US warships in the Persian Gulf simultaneously.

From the East . . .

Palestine could hit Israel from the land throughout its western UN mandated border, and easily infiltrate through East Jerusalem. This would give them range and position for relentless sniper and missile attack. More important, Iran could by-pass Jordan and supply Palestine through Syria. The Arabs could defend the supply line with anti-aircraft and surface-to-air (SAM) missiles in the Golan Heights and elsewhere in Palestine. That denies Israel air superiority.

A more fearsome threat is Iran, the greatest supporter of terrorism in the region and supplier of weapons, missiles, rockets, and components for improvised explosive devices (IEDs). Their nuclear program is not peaceful. The UN’s nuclear watchdog has positive proof that Iran has nuclear bomb ambitions with Russia and Pakistan assisting them. Reference my blog post, “Nuclear Weapons for Dummies” for the gory details.

This map shows the vulnerability of the Israeli population to foreign attack and/or siege if Israel’s borders revert back to the original UN prescribed boundaries. Notice that the south is the Negev desert of interest only to the hardiest of nomadic people. The population density is huge and concentrated in the northern half of the nation. The circles show the highest density, located in and around Tel Aviv-Yafo.

Lebanon and Gaza could get anti-ship missiles, effectively creating a naval blockade of Israel’s most important deep-water ports. A coordinated use of anti-ship missiles from Gaza could create a total naval blockade of Israel. Iran already has its 2nd fleet near the Red Sea. If they sailed through the Suez Canal and into the Mediterranian, they could attack the coastal cities of Israel. Three Israel submarines might change their mind. However, that will not protect surface ships sailing to and from Israel ports.

The Siege . . .

Israel already expected the Arabs to launch another full-scale coordinated attack on the eve of Yom Kipper. Their military remains on full alert. They are ready to deploy “Bunker Buster” bombs and nuclear warheads against “undisclosed targets.” I read that as an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the Hezbollah underground arms caches, and the Hamas tunnels in Gaza. If Iran launches their anti-ship missiles they purchased from China, all hell will break loose. If Hezbollah fires missiles laden with mustard gas into places like Tel Aviv, it will kill hundreds of thousands of people. The Israel reaction will be swift and severe.

Israel would be cut off from all electricity and fuel controlled by Egypt. Every city would be vulnerable to sustained missile attack. Israel would be denied air superiority. Israel could have diminished if not total fresh water loss in all inland cities. Israel would be blockaded from the sea and unable to use its ports. The Iranian missiles through Syria could destroy military installations and airports throughout Israel. Russia, China and Iran would be more than willing to supply modern weapons to Israel’s enemies.

Israel is surrounded, subject to attack on all sides, and in a state of siege. Their best option is a deadly and catastrophic pre-emptive strike using everything they’ve got. Remember that they have nuclear weapons. When they are desperate for survival, they will use them.

Assessment

China and Russia vetoed the resolution in the UN Security Council that asked NATO to attack Syria. If that resolution would have passed and NATO accepted the task, the United States, a major NATO member, would have a major military operation to finance and execute over and beyond Iraq, Afghanistan, and (unoficially) Pakistan.

Given the UN collective mindset in the Security Council, Israel is not receptive to diplomatic solutions. The President of the United States (POTUS) is obviously anti-Israel. This huge geopolitical “fireworks” is about to blow into another Arab-Israeli war. It also could include a thermonuclear and/or chemical/biological holocaust

Hamas already is a member of UNICEF, and may shortly become a member of another UN-sponsored program. The United States (by law) is required to withhold financial support to any UN agency that supports Palestine. Will the UN strike the match that ignites another middle-east war? God help us if they do!

 

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